Tropical Wave

[Texas Bill]

Mike;

The two you are referring to are minor disturbances right now. The fartherest one out from the Canerys doesn't show any organization and is in the middle of the 1016mb portrait. he one just off the Canarys is at the bottom and very close to the 1012mb line, indicating a much lower pressure gradient. That's the one I would watch over the next few days. It COULD develop further as it travels Eastward over warmer waters. Right now, both are just an area of increased cloudiness.
TB

[MikeFisher]

hey TB,
we have clearly different ways to watch the horizon, but that's no prob.
everybody can learn from each others.
what moves around the Canary islands i don't even watch for , no effects on my business here or homedoor.
what i meant is on the map of the NHC marked as "2",
and like i wrote above, i name the surroundings of that just 25-30mphr weak storms only watchable, we have no kind of thread nearby hispaniola/or my home door PC at this moment.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

the thunderstorm filled area 700SSW of the Azores Island is collecting from it's sourroundings and has a very high potential to be a subtropical Cyclone in less than 3 days. the system is moving straight westwards, would be a huge addition to what Kyle is in to. no thread for the Caribbean so far from there, a southern track would be too much of a surprise, but let's watch it, it is subtropical, so will not get named until it get's the real big name(looks like lady Laura). the disturbance ofver the Yucatan Peninsula seems not to bring influence over to Hispaniola.
the eastern highway from the Cap Verdes to the estern Caribbean is still clear.
happy sunday everybody
Mike

[MikeFisher]

hey Chris,
watcha think about the disturbance over the northern mid atlantic??
the forecasters do not number or name that because it shows too much 'subtropical behaviors'. but we know that a subtropical cyclon has exactly the same power than a tropical one. and that disturbance has as tropical 'look' more thunderstorm activity near its center than Fay had at it's best day, plus the typically subtropical ones far off the center spread out over a very wide area.
do you agree that the jet stream will blow that out to sea and let it die there?
i don't, that's why i ask here,
'cause the Gurus say it's nothing.
hey, no bothering, just trying to figger out where i do mistakes in the building of my own meaning about that one.
it is anyways in no way any threat for our island.
but it's there.
it's an object to learn.
i see that with those suroundings the jet stream will not turn it around, doesn't matter what windshears come up.
whatcha think?
Mike

[Chris]

We saw one of these gain hurricane strength and affecting the Mediterranean coastline a few years ago. All I know is that it does not happen very frequently at all. I have very little experience with this type of storm and I do not know the steering current outside of the tropical areas very well.

[MikeFisher]

yes,
their occurance is rare.
it is a subtropical storm with hurricane strength now,
got named "Laura".
actually moving NNW on 8mphr all wather sites and models agree each others that Laura will turn north and then NE out on open waters due to the influence of the jet stream without bringing any daanger to any landmass.
i do not have experience on such occurances neither, that's why i watchit and try to get some ideas about it.
we would need that Jet stream east of the lesser antilles, would bring us much dryer summers, ha ha.
we are actually clear and nothing expected soon on the highway.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

highway starts activities on it's eastern end.
2 areas of disturbances off the african coast.
windshear is 25+knots, too high for development at this moment.
windshear should stay on unfavorable 20+knots for the next couple days.
let's see what surroundings they face on wednesday noon.
happy new sunshine week to everybody
Mike