Tropical Wave

[MikeFisher]

what????
Mido,
maybe you are a little north of my position and it started later.
I am in Cabeza De Toro, exactly the middle of Punta Cana(where the airport is) and Bavaro(where most hotels are located), right on the Beachfront, and we have rain since i've ben up 6:45AM.
it stopped, went on again, at this moment it's stopped.
no overcast???
since yesterday late evening the whole oceanside(mona channel) is completely dark, the system is visible with your eyes from here since yesterday, and sure still is.
i totally agre with Chris on that one.
it moves dangerously slow, nearly stationery, it will not be over by tomorrow, i would say by then it will start.
actually it is nearly impossible to say which point is the center,
i count that 10-15 miles east of punta cana in the Channel, not over puerto rico.
don't let the darkest clouds on the sat shots fool you.
the so called center is right here aside the east coast,
we do not feel the thunderstorm activities, yet, because it is much more active on the east where also(east and SE) the heavy rainloads are located, that is what is over puerto rico, and it leaves purto rico actually in a very bad shape. i have family there and they've ben flooded early last night, no more phone contact since then, that's usual. they are save at their house, but they all run land under.
this rain will most likely walk over Hispaniola from the southeast to the northwest in the slowest possible speed, the waterloads in 93L can be compared to the watering of a big hurricane, we just miss the heaviest winds, but that thunderstorm active area east of it's 'center' will cross the channel at least with 40mphrs winds, and such can grow over the 29+ water temps of the Mona Channel.
even not visible, it has it's ciculation centrum, bcause it has upper outflow.
i expect the final center/eyepoint to show up SE of PC in the southern Mona Channel, positioned west of the actual thunderstorm active area and positioned west of the heaviest rainloads. by that constellation a westwards track is much more likely than a northern path, WNW i would expect.
every waterdrop not falling down on puerto rico will fall on hispaniola,
from PC to Monte Christi to St Dgo and everything in the middle.
it's not named a storm,
it is the worst we had for the Island as a threat,
because it doubles the waterquantity pured down on Hispaniola during the last storms.
Puerto Rico had early evening on the SE and E 4 inches of rain in ONE HOUR.
there is no danger for flat areas like PC away from rivers and mountain areas, but our island has many mountains and countless people living by the rivers, they should be out of such areas this very early afternoon.
with that slow movement and slow development the system can stay with us for several days.
and during that time period it has plenty of time for development.
i am still not sure if it will grow up over the channel to a TD, TS or such, it is for Hispaniola the most dangerous one this year till now without a TD number or the name Kyle on it.
and such a system nearly stationery can start to grow and start circulation even when completely over land, it would not be the first.

Hispaniola's danger zones countrywide should be cleared til this afternoon.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

a good map is the active water vapor map on weather underground, it shows the clouds and automatically updates every few minutes.
it's a life shots map and only visible during daylight, not over night.
it can be found on
WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground

Mike

[Hillbilly]

I've been watching this thing come along. Some days it was there and then the next it did not show up until the afternoon...

Anyway, while it is sunny here in Santiago, it looks like rain....And I do expect major rains tonight...be careful...keep prepared...

HB

[mido]

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

what????
Mido,
maybe you are a little north of my position and it started later.
I am in Cabeza De Toro, exactly the middle of Punta Cana(where the airport is) and Bavaro(where most hotels are located), right on the Beachfront, and we have rain since i've ben up 6:45AM.

Mike, I live in Cueva Taina, just about 3 miles from Cabeza de Toro. I got up at 6.00 am and brought my kids to school at about 7.30 am and it was not raining and there was no strong wind.

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

it stopped, went on again, at this moment it's stopped.
no overcast???
since yesterday late evening the whole oceanside(mona channel) is completely dark, the system is visible with your eyes from here since yesterday, and sure still is.

I am at my office now in the center of Bavaro and still no rain, overcast could be 6/8. As I mentioned before, it looks very dark in the east since yesterday but it doesn't seem to come closer.

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

i totally agre with Chris on that one.
it moves dangerously slow, nearly stationery, it will not be over by tomorrow, i would say by then it will start.
actually it is nearly impossible to say which point is the center,
i count that 10-15 miles east of punta cana in the Channel, not over puerto rico.
don't let the darkest clouds on the sat shots fool you.
the so called center is right here aside the east coast,
we do not feel the thunderstorm activities, yet, because it is much more active on the east where also(east and SE) the heavy rainloads are located, that is what is over puerto rico, and it leaves purto rico actually in a very bad shape. i have family there and they've ben flooded early last night, no more phone contact since then, that's usual. they are save at their house, but they all run land under.
this rain will most likely walk over Hispaniola from the southeast to the northwest in the slowest possible speed, the waterloads in 93L can be compared to the watering of a big hurricane, we just miss the heaviest winds, but that thunderstorm active area east of it's 'center' will cross the channel at least with 40mphrs winds, and such can grow over the 29+ water temps of the Mona Channel.
even not visible, it has it's ciculation centrum, bcause it has upper outflow.
i expect the final center/eyepoint to show up SE of PC in the southern Mona Channel, positioned west of the actual thunderstorm active area and positioned west of the heaviest rainloads. by that constellation a westwards track is much more likely than a northern path, WNW i would expect.
every waterdrop not falling down on puerto rico will fall on hispaniola,
from PC to Monte Christi to St Dgo and everything in the middle.
it's not named a storm,
it is the worst we had for the Island as a threat,
because it doubles the waterquantity pured down on Hispaniola during the last storms.
Puerto Rico had early evening on the SE and E 4 inches of rain in ONE HOUR.
there is no danger for flat areas like PC away from rivers and mountain areas, but our island has many mountains and countless people living by the rivers, they should be out of such areas this very early afternoon.
with that slow movement and slow development the system can stay with us for several days.
and during that time period it has plenty of time for development.
i am still not sure if it will grow up over the channel to a TD, TS or such, it is for Hispaniola the most dangerous one this year till now without a TD number or the name Kyle on it.
and such a system nearly stationery can start to grow and start circulation even when completely over land, it would not be the first.

Hispaniola's danger zones countrywide should be cleared til this afternoon.
Mike

Looking at the satellite images, I agree that there is a dangerous system out there but it is not here yet.

[KateP]

I'm in Punta Cana and it's been overcast pretty much all morning. Raining on and off and a bit of breeze twice. Hopefully that's the worse we'll get.

[MikeFisher]

i am not on my sat images since a few hours, i am on a lented computer now in cortecito.
but do not let the clouds on sat shots fool you,
like i said this morning.
the systems center went on land here in PC before noon and is actually located somewhere between Veron and Higuey.
no strong winds on landside so far, and not much rain, just partly showers on and off.
offshore winds in the 10nmls close area are on 20+knots and rising.
we had a boat offshore to help a private boat in a emergency, those stupids wanted to fish today and got both engines shut down, they will sure never again try such.
the thunderstorms and the rain are on the far backend of the system, still puerto rico, and we will get them all, the wind and the rain.
the unnamed system carries a waterload compared to hurricane George, so do not make the mistake to see a unnamed system as harmless.
in case of punta cana we are not vulnerable to the rainloads for flooding and mudslides. the wide rest of our island is and will get a very hard time later today and tonight and tomorrow.
if the system did not show increse yet is because it's thunderstorms did not have the time to do so over water, yet, but from puerto rico towards punta cana they will have 80 nmls of 29C waterbody to do so.
systems in the mona channel are rare, but here we have one, straight on and that rain is horribly dangerous.
it still did not even began on hispaniola.
i don't understand why the beaches are still not shut down here in the cortecito area, at the resorts aside are still some people in the water, completely dangerous.
who ever lives in vulnerable flooding and mudslides areas whereever on the island should be out of there now.
the thunderstorms with the real rainloads will start to come in from the SE, first hit around the location of the Marinas Cap Cana and Punta Cana, tracking west/WNW towards the center of Hispaniola, it is wider than Hispanila is, the rain during the next 24 hrs will cover the whole island(of course not always at once, but at his time each area will get it's full share.
i would be happy to report tomorrow a sunny morning and add that i've been completely wrong.
but i don't rely on lottery games,
my boats are on their way to their savespot,
i await 15+ft offshore Sea rolling on with dangerous inshore waters, winds of at least 30mphr(could easily be over 40) and tremendeous heavy rainfalls somewhere during the next 10-15 hrs.
how long they last is unpredictable, it moves very slow, nobody knows how the thunderstorms react/increase aso over the mona channel, nobody can predict changes in movement and strenght or it's forward speed.
hurricanes have power to move forward and that makes them very accurately predictable at their final approach, this watercan gives no chance to do so, it can change any moment, and the worst would be:
it can stand still any moment and gain power.
all the best to everybody
Mike

[Expat133]

hows the weather now and whats expected in coming days for Santo domingo?

[MikeFisher]

on the east coast wind is rising and rain is on and off, ocean is very rough and rising.
for st dgo somebody else will check in or check the sticky of the St Dgo weather report on top of the page.
have fun
Mike

[Chris]

So be careful and keep prepared. Can anyone say Tropical Storm Noel?

We still have the potential for a tropical depression as the system moves to the North-NorthWest. This will take about two days to happen and for this system to leave Hispaniola. Water is still coming. Again, rain is on the tail end. Heavy rainfall with potential life threatening flash flooding is expected to continue according to the NHC.

If it looks sunny and fine out there, remember, conditions can change quickly. While a system such as this is in our immediate vicinity, be aware that things can change. We will have more guidance from a recon flight today.

[franco]

According to the current speed of the system and satellite images when do you guys think heavy rains will start in Santo Domingo?