Tropical Storm Omar ... was broad area of low pressure

[barbara.w.]

L98 could be become a problem for the region.

The GFDL model shows the system on a northEASTERLY path bringing it just south of the Mona Passage within 48 hours with parts of hurricane force (Cat.1) embedded.
It's then forecast to cross the eastern part of PR with H2 force winds in its eastern quadrants (max. winds around 100 kts; min. pressure 970 hPa).

Let's hope they are wrong with this as this scenario would also very much affect the eastern part of this country not only with heavy downpours but also with TS winds.

[MikeFisher]

it builds a center just 170 miles south of the Mona Channel.
no forecasts needed, it is right in front of the door.
rain is on and off on the east coast, strong 20 minutes showers,
still some far pieces of the huge cloudcollection located southwest of us.
i would expect it to be a tropicl depression today,
very slow movement, and that tends to the north with a eastern drift,
that would spare hispaniola from heaviest rainfalls and bring it over puerto rico.
while i prefer the sunshine, punta cana can take the water without fear,
no mountains and no rivers nearby, we will not get wind from that one, it is just water, so let's move eastwards. it is the jetstream bringing the 'strange' movements towards the rare east, Chris. i hope that thing is gone in 2 days and does not park around western puerto rico over the mona channel. usually would've been a straight NW run approaching Hispaniola's southcoast. in case of danger throu heavy rains i prefer the strange NE track, more rain for me but much less danger for the island.
chances are very low to see that running as a tropical storm before wednesday, water is hot on near 29C, but luckily windshear is high, si in case it will reach TS status and it's name it will be passed and on a northern move away from us.
the watching during today's sunlight hours on the visible sat shots can provide funny moves, that rain still can go everywhere.
Mike

[Hillbilly]

Barbara: That would indeed be strange movement..to hit the "eastern part of PR" wouldn't you mean the "DR"????? Seems better, somehow.

NANA is gone? She was there this morning,and now, mean ol' Mr. Fisher has taken her off the screen....apparently, it happened quicker than the forecasters thought.

I'm kidding Mike...kidding.

HB

[barbara.w.]

Originally Posted by Hillbilly

Barbara: That would indeed be strange movement..to hit the "eastern part of PR" wouldn't you mean the "DR"?????

Strange indeed, but most of the (spaghetti) models agree on a course that would take TD 15 across the EASTERN part of PR (from SW to NE).
Vamos a ver...

[Hillbilly]

wow, like going backwards!!! I do not think I have seen spagetti like that before...

Man oh man!!

HB

[planner]

It really is strange - I thought I was seeing it wrong.... I dont' think I've ever seen this pattern in any model or historical graph.

[Chris]

Wow people! that is why I always caution against looking at models without understanding what you are looking at. You're looking at a SHIPS intensity model. It is an intensity model ... it contributes bupkes to direction...

Ay Ay! OK, I'll do a new post on models, what they are and what they mean...

Anyway, this system is now messing with Nicaragua and the next one is following in its tracks.

[barbara.w.]

Originally Posted by Chris

Wow people! that is why I always caution against looking at models without understanding what you are looking at.(...)
Anyway, this system is now messing with Nicaragua...

So true...


TD15 is not Invest99.

[quaqualita]

Tropical depression fifteen forecast/advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al152008
0900 utc tue oct 14 2008

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for puerto rico and the
u.s. Virgin islands...the british virgin islands...and the extreme
eastern portion of the dominican republic from isla saona to cabo
engano.

Interests in the netherlands antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.

Tropical depression center located near 14.3n 69.2w at 14/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the southeast or 130 degrees at 2 kt

[MikeFisher]

what the heck are ya talking about???
Tropical Depression 15 is what been prior called Invest 98L and is in no way a threat for nicaragua, because it is here with us in the east.
the Invest near nicaragua is a new one, but like it is no threat for Hispaniola i leave it out. we are also lining up on the highway.
yes HB,
i took Nana out, it is dying and gone,
but a piece of Nana is left and got his Invest number, but no threat for Hispaniola or any land area, it will also run upwards to the hurricane graveyeard.
back to TD15, the one threatening the lesser antilles, puerto rico and passing very close to the east coast of hispaniola.
i await that system before wednesday afternoon to be named Tropical Storm Omar.
here in punta cana we've been very close to get that one.
but it is drifting eastwards like i said in the posts of the last days.
actually it is drifting exactly southeast, bringing a little distance between the systems rainloads and punta cana, and it will later on get pulled up to the northeast by the low pressure conditions notrth east of puerto rico.
we had rain from TD15 before yesterday, then the rainloads got pulled south east by the formimg disturbance in the SE caribbean corner, now they are to gether as one formation named TD15.
we are mostly sunny today, we will get few showers and they should be very short. we have just some splitter pieces of clouds from TD15 over the Mona Channel. the center of TD 15 will not cross the mona channel.
the center with it's thunderstorms will cross well south of puerto rico, pass very close to the puerto rican SE coast and make it's landfalls on several small islands east and southeast of puerto rico.
hey Chris,
we discussed strange movements of waterloaded nonames who move very slow and in all directions earlier this season, this is one of the examples that small and slow moving disturbances even with TD strength can get pulled to all directions.
a storm formation usually moves towards the northern and towards the western sides, so a NW is the most typical track of storms in our areas, TD 15 is actually drifting SE, the complete opposite.
i don't know why.
i predicted days ago that this stuff most likely will go NE because the surrounding conditions lead me to that conclusion, but the prior and actually still on SE drift i have no explanation for.
stay dry and save everybody.
Mike