Tropical Storm Omar ... was broad area of low pressure

[Gringo]

Thanks you guy's, its nice to have the weather presented accurately...

[MikeFisher]

we now have 5 active systems around for the atlantic/caribbean sea.
TD 15 been very early upgraded to tropical storm Omar,
while i awaited that it happened fast,
such quick itensifying could mean that he encounters much less windshear than expected, waterbody is on a high 29C, that may get a hurricane Omar during the next 30 something hours.
in that case i would not find that very funny, i doubt that a hurricane force formation get's that much pulled easterly like i would expect such strange movement fro a TD or weak TS.
we have to waatch that one close and permanently.
if the system stops it's shift towards the east would provide our southern coastline with a major hurricane.
i will leave the life sat charts on the 2nd screen to watch the permanent updates.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

hurricane hunters brought the data.
Omar is intensifying very fast and has very fav conditions all around.
looks like we have a major hurricane out there by sunrise tomorrow morning.
actually it is still on the drift south damping heaviest rainfalls over northern colombia and venezuela.
the computer models and forecasters stick to the plan that it will get pulled northeast throu tonight towards the virgin islands, in that case the worst for hispaniola would be a bunch of rain during tomorrow over the east coast.
i really hope their prognostic for that rare northeast course is right.
Omar has very fav surrounding conditions to go on intensifying quickly, specially when he finished to build his eyewall which is in progress and should not take more than some 8-12hrs to finish such. on that NE course he would take the virgin islands as a strong Cat 2 or even as a weak Cat 3 hurricane, we are not just talking rain in case of Omar.

i will get up tonight and recheck the charts.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

as shown on the 5PM update above he is doing the turn right now.
actually heading ENE at 6 mphr.
than earlier he stops the turn and moves straight on than better for hispaniola, because than farther he would pass.
he will have reached hurricane Cat 1 force any moments, higher gusts are on hurricane force.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

daylight is gone,
so we have to switch to IR shots til the morning


Mike

[MikeFisher]

just realized that the IR map i posted did not update itself.
this one should do so,
at least i hope so
Mike

[Chris]

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

hey Chris,
we discussed strange movements of waterloaded nonames who move very slow and in all directions earlier this season, this is one of the examples that small and slow moving disturbances even with TD strength can get pulled to all directions.
a storm formation usually moves towards the northern and towards the western sides, so a NW is the most typical track of storms in our areas, TD 15 is actually drifting SE, the complete opposite.
i don't know why.
i predicted days ago that this stuff most likely will go NE because the surrounding conditions lead me to that conclusion, but the prior and actually still on SE drift i have no explanation for.
stay dry and save everybody.
Mike

hey Mike, I had no internet all day today and will have to play a little catch up. I'll check out now and let you know what I think.

[MikeFisher]

o.k.,
they are both updating automatically now.
i know the over night IR shots are not that accurate than the visible daytime shots because too much stuff shows up within the colors,
but hey Chris,
are ya on still??
what you mean of that?
to me it does by far not look like a ENE track,
i do not like it,
but i think i see it much more northwards than to the east.
this one can turn bad.
i will check the first visible shots in the morning when daylight is out,
would be a damn short call to bring the boats out of their usual parking area tomorrow and mess with this weeks plans.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

now we posted the same time, sorry.
check the latest movement on the IR´s,
to me that stuff is moving north and still turning.
i will be on for mostly the whole night.
Mike

[Chris]

All I mean is give me a little time