Tropical Storm Omar ... was broad area of low pressure

[Chris]

Mike, some quick observations ...

- the early, late and gfs ensemble tracks are in good agreement
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...ack_early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...rack_late1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...track_gfs1.png.

- the direction is muy loco but I´ve seen one storm do this before (not before the DR but after it passed us)

- strengthening is almost a given at this stage. Here is the early cycle intensity guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...ity_early1.png

The models are in tight agreement. I would therefore put this storm where the forecasters say it is going to be on a track through the Northern Leeward Islands in about 36 hours. We have to simply watch any shifts in estimated position.

[MikeFisher]

looks like i messed my answer, not showing up.
anyways,
you steered my mind so far to ease to await the morning visible shots.
anyways some hrs away, what ever track it will finally be.
and yes, it is moving very out of the ordinary,
it is due to the actual present jet stream position,
that blockade moves over the globe til to russia actually,
never had such in mind for my thoughts about the movements like i have the last weeks.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

Chris,
i do not wanna be a troublemaker,
but i got the 11PM updates,
he is a hurricane now,
he slows down his forward speed to intensify, just 5mphr now,
and his track is changing more to north than ENE,
i have to say that i am concerned now and will not go to bed.
let´s keep all eyes open.
Mike

[Lambada]

2am advisory here:
Hurricane OMAR Public Advisory

[MikeFisher]

hi Ginnie,
we're back on daulight and the ole fisherman get's calmer.
i hate those spreading IR shots where every cloud may appear like a stormcenter.
Hurricane Omar is on his straight NE track toward the lil isles east of puerto rico.
he is still strengthening, even that his pressure raised a bit.
looks like a strong Cat 2 hurricane very early thursday morning/late tonight somewhere between eastern puerto rico and St Kitts.
some this time of the year anyways usual showers will be the only effect for hispaniola today and tomorrow over the east coast.
time for the Marina
Mike

[Chris]

Sorry Mike for those links. You will be able to access them from this page :
Operational Model Guidance Products for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Also, besides plotting myself, the NRL (Naval Research Laboratory) concurs with the position of the storm.

[MikeFisher]

noprob.
this one worked.
i can not count how often i try to link somewhere and it goes to nowhere, lol.
we are on the east actually full sunny, the clouds stay in the middle of the Mona Channel SE of PC.
Omar moves straight on his NE path, good for us,
wish all the best for the little islands over there in the track.
he's been finisheing his turn from the SE drift to the NE track when daylight shots stopped their updates, that concerned me to he.., i usually trust what i can see or feel or smell, nighttime IR charts are really not my big friends.
the boats are all offshore this morning and fishing great in nice current lines close to the shore on surrounding flat Sea conditions, that's usual when something like Omar is passing nearby, but not too close.
the only kid angry on Omar on the east is our Luis Mario,
he is actually in the period where he loves his escuelita(still in preschool),
and for the alert schools are closed this morning, ha ha.
Mike

[Hlywud]

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook


click on the Hurricane and it will give you al the details