November watch

[MikeFisher]

i am not wrong on the date, i know we have one more day left in october 2008, lol.
our surroundings are still quiet, feels pretty good, and surrounding conditions in case of hispaniola are not very favorable to bring something up very close or fast.
the only hot-zone is the south east caribbean,
so IF something fast brews up somewhere it should be expected from the east of Nicaragua.
why i posted the early evening shot of the mid highway?
it's in the War-Zone,
that's the area within 1000 miles east of hispaniola,
the area which i look on when i step out my frontdoor,
and it is actually anyways the only disturbance out there on the atlantic.
actually a huge area of rain, 4-5 still separate and not together moving areas with unorganized "movement",
surrounding conditions there are not very favorable for development,
sure not for a fast one, but it entered my war-zone, so i watch.

aside that area,
we are on typical weather conditions for this time of the year,
10 knots winds, farer offshore reaching 14-15knots,
Sea on it's usual late in the year/fall 5-8ft,
fresh breeze from the east -east north east.

'nite
Mike

[MikeFisher]

so eastern Nicaragua got it's awaited movement.
sea surface temps are 29.5C,
windshear 10-15 knots low,
such top conditions will most likely bring up more thunderstormactivity
in that area which may get organized the next 24hrs.
would not be surprised to see Tropical Storm Paloma on the map by tomorrow night, located around 350 miles north of the Panama channel.
usual track would be a NW one, but the models await that a lower pressure area east of florida develops into a subtropical/extratropical formation, such would pull Palomita northwards to bring strong rain over western Cuba.
i don't think it could be pulled northeastwards.
in case of hispaniola's east coast, the Highway is free and actually not very favorable to expect something before mid november.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

while strongest circulation is on in the south,
heaviest thunderstorms are concentrated on the northern part of the disturbance,
so that may result in forming the finally center there.
this change of position could be significantly for Hispaniola,
because than more north, than bigger the influence from the suptropical disturbance off the US east coast to pull the system up,
a north Eastern track for a upcoming TD or TS Paloma would actually not be a surprise out of the ordinary any more.
the forming should be finished by thursday afternoon or even earlier,
so then we will see that track.
actually published forecast models are not reliable,
they still count on the center in the south,
if the center forms in the northern area the models would change their tracking forecasts drastically.
in such a case it would spend a long time over hot caribbean Sea waters and may get bigger than just a tropical storm, Jamaica would be in it's way.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

center is formed,
Palomita on her way,
such a beautiful name and such a bad girlie, lol.
it is still just a TS but already started to build an eyewall,
wind shear is actually even lower(under 5knots) than expected,
sea surface temps near 30C.
that will grow fast and strong.
by present conditions i expect hurricane Paloma on the map not later than tomorrow noon, it will be a mayor one of Strong Cat 2-mid Cat3 for the Caymans and due to the pulling disturbance on the US East coast it will track north and even turn northeast, most likely a big bang for the Cuban south coast and running throu to the central bahamas.
Paloma is a bad bad girl.
aside of that it looks still clear for Hispaniola, specially for the eastern side where i am myself located. we have a huge area in movement north of the central highway, not named or numbered, but clearly circeling on the sat shots, bad conditions over there and anyways far north of the route, i do not think something will come up from there the next days, and it would most likely anyways be directed towards the hurricane graveyard as long as not influenced by a paloma or such.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

the Lad is strengthening very fast,
hurricane Paloma now,
a lot of very long hours over water and very favorable strengthening conditions ahead of that storm now, looks like an other major one.
Hey,
Paloma is writing hurricane history for the stats of 2008.
since the hurricane documentations 1851
this 2008 season is the first year with 5 !!! consecutive months
with at least 1 hurricane each.
we had a overall very quiet and sunny season over here on the dominican east coast, but overall for the atlantic area we are on the peak top in the cyclus of nature's ups and downs.
hopefully the top,
so it will go smoother during the next decade.
again some heavy time for Cuba,
western Haiti will get some water,
let it run throu fast, it is actually on a 11mphr
and it will get a eastern course away from that actually north track very most likely.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

Palomita made the history complete.
5 months with a major hurricane each in 2008.
the Caymans got it hard today,
even that gran cayman been very lucky due to a early easterly turn of the by then still intensifying Cat 4 Lad,
Cayman Brac received a full hit, they've been for several hours in the quiet center.
tonight it will be poor Cuba again, for the neighbours there it looks like a record season, too.
coming from the southwest towards the shallow southern waters of eastern Cuba Paloma will produce very high storm surges.
the models predict a fast dead of paloma due to very high 30+knots windshear to it's northwest, but heck, that Lad is still walking as a strong Cat 3 to the northeast, that leaves sorrily possibilities open for very rare/weird moves and turns. that eyewall looks still very stable, it will take a while to damage that even for the highest windshear.
the disturbed area in movement i mentioned on my nov 6th post above is numbered as 94L now, but not a threat anywhere near the island, it may come up a bit, maybe not, conditions there are not very favorable for a huge development, it is far away and will not get a heading to the tropics.
let's check Paloma's strength and heading sunday morning.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

wow,
Paloma is really suffering hard and going down very quick.
looks like no more than a tropical depression for the bahamas tonight,
she took more central cuba than the east.
94L also looks like the grave is digged, no development expected.
that shows like an other mostly sunny week,
should stay quiet til near the next weekend.
happy long holiday weekend
Mike