we started august,
traditionally after the first week we get the first movement on the hurricane highway, forming off the Cape Verd Islands west of the african coast, and right on time, here we go.
it is actually a disturbance under the influence of a weak tropical wave,
not really organized, yet, but under not much unfavorable surrounding conditions.
near surface pressure is high out there, but will fall significantly on it's westward course closer to the lesser antilles, SST's are on favorable 28C and will be more than 1C higher closer to the caribbean islands, windshear out there is only around 20 knots and not predicted to rise on it's path for the next couple days, more likely wind shear will even drop under 20 knots.
it will most likely develop very very slow into something during the next 3 days, in what can not be seen right now.
let's lean back and watch.
Mike
