Lots going on, but nothing happening

[Hillbilly]

Yes, I have been watching #2 all day...might be interesting.
Currently, in Santiago, we have wind from the West....almost a sure sign of rain..the parrots were raucous...

HB

Tropical Atlantic Rainbow Imagery - Satellite Services Division

[MikeFisher]

you can always count on the parrots, no kidding, they feel the changes.
number 2 on the list is on a still westward move, facing very high close to surface pressure there, i don't think it will develop.
of course it is a rainload, no doubt, where it passes it will poure down on it.
in the northern caribbean portion along the dominican south coast the close surface pressure is actually much lower than in the southern portion where it is actually heading to, so there is a slight chance that the actual westward course which would not have significant effects/rain for our Island, could change to a NW track and bring some rain up here. to follow a low pressure path is for such systems the easier way/their prefered path, IF they have the power to turn and survive the high pressure confrontation.
i see it at the moment too weak to change much, guess it will rain the heck outha it over the windward islands and disappear before tomorrow afternoon.
number 1 did not improve anything, the opposite, it is even more weakening.
i hope for a quiet week with above average dry weather and below average winds, we are also actually here on the east far below average Sea level/waves, it is extremely quiet for mid august.
and i like that, lol.
go on weather
Mike

[MikeFisher]

i guess you have it, too,
up there in Santiago.
watching the disturbances far away i did not pay attention to the simple usual clouds in front of the doorstep,
we are under a medium watering since 30 minutes now,
but no wind involved, completely down,
Ocean flat like a plate at the moment here on the east.
promises good fishing for tomorrow early morning.
what we named #2 over the windward Islands is completely struggeling, very unlikely to develop into something.

but #1 SW of Cape Verde,
around a 5 days away from our area,
did survivie it's struggles and shows surface movement,
near 50mphr winds only til now,
but wandering on favorable over 27C SST's
with a not hindering 10 knots windshear, and that is even dropping.
the only circumstances hindering that disturbance from a good development is the dry Sahara dust/air located in big quantity on it's north,
but that doesn't mean it can't develop.
we have to watch that one and find out what it's track direction will be,
more to the north or on the favorable path to our side westwards.
the near surface pressure on the highway is dropping a lot,
so what survives the Cape Verde's dry air will face top conditions to grow up.
the daylight shots in the morning may show more details about that development.

and good,
while writing the rain stopped,
been good half an hour,
no need to give the garden water in the morning, lol.
'Nite
Mike

[juanita]

[motherofteenagers]

We will be arriving in PC on Friday the 14th of August at 12:30, I'm getting worried about the weather. Everything has been looking so good up until this point.
I know you said it looks like #1 will be all but gone by tomorrow. What about the one further out? Will this affect our flights?
We've never travelled during the hurricane season, so I don't know what we should expect. We always figured it would be hot and humid, but at this point, can anyone tell if #2 will actually develop and how bad the area might be affected? We are staying at Dreams PC.
By the way Mike, your website looks great!
Thanks for all your help.

[MikeFisher]

#1 is on the south of the Caribbean Sea moving westward,
no effects expected for Punta Cana.
#2 is a big rainload, at the moment around 500 miles east of the windward islands,
that will most likely enter the caribbean Sea on the northern point and bring rain to Puerto Rico, influence on Punta Cana can not be seen clear by now, it can change track direction and increase/decrease of formation unpredictably, late afternoon or tonight when closer to the Islands it may be clearer what way it wanna go.
# Lx is strengthening and now the 2nd tropical depression of the season for the Atlantic Basin, named Tropical Depression#2.
it is big and the pressure in it's center is just a bit over 1006mb, still dropping.
with a high pressure area on it's south and southwest but a favorable lowpressure area to it's northwest i my best guess is that this depression changes it's actual westward track in a day or two towards the northwest heading for open Atlantic waters, the so called Hurricane Graveyard.
in case of a way towards the island it would take at least 4 days from now to have influence on our area, but very unlikely.
surrounding there are favorable for development, the system is entering today 29C SST's, low presure to it's northwest to favore development, very low and still dropping windshear, but also a bit hindering dry Sahara air to it's north.
it is a slow moving big system, so we can lean back and watch what it is up to, thousands of kilometers away from us.

in case of a flight for august 14th or such,
nobody can tell the weather by now such far in advance.
actually there's nothing in vicinity what would hinder a flight or keep people from having a blast on a beach vacation.

the above in the text mentioned numbers(#1, #2, Lx) are from the 8AM update tuesday morning august 11th 2009.
the Map above updates automatically 8AM, 2PM, 8PM, 2AM),
so in case of any changes those numerations may switch/names may be given to formations etc.
the numerations are only accurate til 2PM august 11th.
Mike

[pedrochemical]

99 has dropped out of the race - nice one!
Tight lines!

[MikeFisher]

so far to changes within a few hours since the early morning updates, Pedro, ha ha.
on the sat shots from right now the tropical waves appear just as lil cloudy stuff, they are disappearing, no development.
and that's goood
Mike

[Hillbilly]

It's funny, nothing seems to have changed over 24 hours on this map: National Hurricane Center

But this one of the middle Atlantic looks interesting: Central Atlantic Rainbow Imagery - Satellite Services Division

It is a few days away and nothing is definite.

HB

[MikeFisher]

good morning Luis.
that one is the one named Tropical Depression#2.
it is still moving westwards and not intensifying due to dry sahara dust on it's north, wandering through non favorable high 'near surface' pressure conditions.
by the positioning of the actual surrounding conditions dust and the near low pressure areas i guess still the same, it will start to move off the straight westward track more towards NNW/NW towards the Hurricane Graveyard.

the small first Tropical Wave in the southern caribbean Sea is dying down there.
the 2nd Troical Wave 250 miles east of the lesser Antilles pushed a cloudy area our way/more towards Puerto Rico, lol, and diminished as a Tropical Wave.

between the Cape Verde Islands and the African Coast we have now a strong new Tropical Wave, forming in the actually coolest Atlantik waters, heck of rain for the Cape Verdes. like Tropical Depression #2 it appeared on the screens on a very northern position, formations coming up there are most likely the food for the Hurricane Graveyard mid Atlantic.

til now nothing bothering in vicinity for the next days,
but the movement started, we had a good number of small tropical waves coming up and going down during the last 5 days, conditons at the typical 'Big Boys' birthplace off the African Coast are favorable for forming Tropical Waves and Depressions, the Highway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean Sea shows average conditions and improving in case of providing favorable conditions for intensification on the westwards tracks.
TS Ana will show up in less than a week,
would fit in a sheme for an max average, more likely a bit below average Hurricane Season.
Mike