Recession of 2008 and impact on the DR

samanasuenos · #1 01-15-2008, 02:31 PM

We can all see the Recession of 2008 hitting in the USA - no debate necessary!

So, ...
my 3 questions are:

1. Whether recession in the USA automatically spells disaster for the DR. Or could there be some benefits?

2. Either way, what effects might we start seeing?

3. And...Has anyone seen effects so far?

I am just wondering. It may not be ALL bad in the DR. For example, if folks can't afford a house in the USA and lose it - maybe they'll look for one abroad. And I suppose a recession in Canada would reak more havoc down south!

'Just throwing it out there for thoughtful debate.

Thank you,
Sammy - concerned for the country of my Suenos (DR)

andrewc52002 · #2 01-15-2008, 02:43 PM

If you lose your house in USA, I don't think you'll go down there to buy another one. Recession in US & Canada it's bad news for DR.
The first effect will be less North American tourists and expats in DR. This will be visible. The economy will be affected too, for sure, part of it being the tourism. But not only that. God help us to see the end of the tunnel !

samanasuenos · #3 01-15-2008, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewc52002

If you lose your house in USA, I don't think you'll go down there to buy another one. Recession in US & Canada it's bad news for DR.
The first effect will be less North American tourists and expats in DR. This will be visible. The economy will be affected too, for sure, part of it being the tourism. But not only that. God help us to see the end of the tunnel !

Hola Andrew. About losing one's home - hey, if ya lose your house and had been daydreaming of relocating to the tropics anyway....if ya have little to lose....just wondering!?

I agree that tourism will feel it. But beyond the obvious, what less obvious impications might there be?

Yes, we can pray and hope that the soup lines do not start - in the USA, or anywhere for that matter.

Thank you, Sammy

cobraboy · #4 01-15-2008, 03:12 PM

Canada is heading for recession?

Tourism aside, I imagine remittances to families in the DR will drop, effecting local non-tourist economies.

RE prices in the DR may go down due to lowered demand.

Reduction of airline service to the DR due to lowered demand.

Just off the top of my head.

Mooseman · #5 01-15-2008, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cobraboy

Canada is heading for recession?

Tourism aside, I imagine remittances to families in the DR will drop, effecting local non-tourist economies.

RE prices in the DR may go down due to lowered demand.

Reduction of airline service to the DR due to lowered demand.

Just off the top of my head.

According to financial pundits here, Canada will not be affected to the same depth as the US. In past recessions, save the last one, we very much got dumped when they did, but we seem to have grown away somewhat and have more resilience now. That's my take; not a professional view - just quoting pundits. What is a pundit, anyway?

margaret · #6 01-15-2008, 04:11 PM

I think MORE Canadians will come to the Domincan Republic as it's one of the cheapest destinations for Canadians. Although there is growing anxiety about a job loss and the economy, the latest polls show that 45% of Canadians a willing to pay a 5% carbon tax because they are MORE concerned about the environment.

DR is one of cheapest vacations for Canadians; in fact it's cheaper to vist POP for one week than Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver etc. or even renting a cottage for a week. Cuba and Mexico are the biggest competitors for Canadian tourists.

Travel by Canadians to foreign countries, top 15 countries visited

While these stats are from 2006, you can see that visits have been increasing since 2001. Dominican Republic is only 3 hours away allowing for short visits with a smaller carbon footprint than a trip to Spain. Some might spend less money, but you might find that you will attract a more affluent class of tourists in DR who will spend MORE money as they change their choice of destination from Aruba or St. Barts for example to DR. Also, if ecotourism and adventure vacations are developed more in the DR, you might be able to capture some of the market that travel to Costa Rica and other destinations.

Bronxboy · #7 01-15-2008, 04:52 PM

Spending is way down in the USA.

This will mean that tourism will be down all over the world!!!!

andrewc52002 · #8 01-15-2008, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Hola Andrew. About losing one's home - hey, if ya lose your house and had been daydreaming of relocating to the tropics anyway....if ya have little to lose....just wondering!?

The mentality up here is that if here is bad, down there must be worse. And when you got problems (job, finance, RE, etc.) you don't think too much about vacations. It's not for all, but that's the majority.

andrewc52002 · #9 01-15-2008, 05:19 PM

My curiosity again. What happened in DR during previous recessions ? Who lived through them maybe are willing to share the experience. Thank you.

korejdk · #10 01-15-2008, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by margaret

Some might spend less money, but you might find that you will attract a more affluent class of tourists in DR who will spend MORE money as they change their choice of destination from Aruba or St. Barts for example to DR.

I doubt that the St Barts crowd would switch to the DR anytime soon...