Hurricane Dean

[Ken]

Originally Posted by love_salsa

Hi,
ok, so it's not so bad,
but for all the People who are living near the Beach it could be a Problem?
I cross my fingers, that I would not be too bad....
Sabine

This is one of the risks that people close their eyes to when they build on the beach, same as the people in the US who build in the flood plain, then rebuild after being flooded.

I recall a few years ago when a hurricane passed Nagua the water wiped out many of the little shacks living close to the water near the highway from Nagua to Samana. I also recall when we were Puerto La Cruz,Venezuela, on our sailboat that a surge picked up fishing boats that were pulled up onto the sand well back from water and moved them across the street that passed by the shore. The damage could just as well have been done to expensive homes if built in the same location.

[Ken]

Originally Posted by Chris

. I only can advise that if it was me, I'd make some preparation, if I was in a low lying area prone to surge. In my opinion, DrChrisHE is doing the right thing. She knows that you cannot do anything once a surge starts - you have to prepare beforehand. So, I would ask you to be safe, taking into account where you live, how close to the water and the previous history in your area.

I think that is very good advice, Chris. All you can do is pass on the information you are getting from your weather sources. Then it is up to the people who could be affected to do what they think is necessary to keep themselves and their property safe. Only they can make that decision.

Preparing is, in my opinion, always the best policy. Because once the wind starts blowing or the water starts rising, you have to live with what you did or didn't do. It is too late then to do much of anything.

When Barbara and I were living aboard our cruising sailboat, just like,I'm sure, you and Richard on yours, always got ready for a storm even when we had a feeling that all our preparations wouldn't be necessary. There are no guarantees, and it is much easier to restore normality if all you have to do is undo your preparations than if you have to deal with major damage that might have been avoided or lessened in severity by advance preparation.

[DrChrisHE]

Yes...it is very unfortunate that when building and development takes place, very little is assessed in terms of long term environment. I've lived in NY, CA, OR, AR, Norway and here in the DR and seen it time and time again (the least in Norway where urban planning is taken seriously.) It seems like every other year in CA there are multi-million $ homes that fall into the ocean via mudslides/floods/earthquakes/storm surge and burn up due to fire, yet people are ready to rebuild in virtually the same spot. The thing that is the scariest is that in areas with LOTS of development, the NEW development can actually have an impact on the existing development by displacing water or taking away vegetation that would normally offset some impact. Just as the unstudied break-water wall in Boca Chica has actually HURT their beach sand (because no one studied the currents & flows) the same is true when enormous buidlings are put up on the beach. There WILL be an impact...what it is, I'm not sure but I've seen surges of 12' get raised to double when they have to go around a large building (the ocean is impressively strong & reminds me constantly not to toy with her).

Of course, I don't want to see the new beaches disappear in Juan Dolio...they are gorgeous and I truly enjoy all of our white sand and shells. However, when push comes to shove, the ocean will win. My goal is to stay out of her way and protect my kids and as many others as possible. I guess that's what you get when you combine the old life guard with the public health doc. Some people I know are stocking up on rum and taking chairs to the BEACH for this; so, it just goes to show 'ya...we all have our quirks.

[AllieUS]

Hello everyone. I have been keeping up on all of the postings here and I appreciate all of the valuable information. I am from the US and not use to tropical storms or hurricaines so please forgive me if this sounds stupid. Can someone tell me what you mean by surges? Is this high winds? I am flying into Punta Cana on Sunday the 19th for 2 weeks. What is your advise as to safety? I know you have many other problems wondering when and if Dean will hit while we are making our vacation plans. (sorry). Can you also tell me after Dean hits (and hopefully it does not) how is the weather? Does it rain and for how long? I have never experienced any of this so I am a newbie. I am praying for all the islands out there. Thank you kindly.

[Rocky]

Originally Posted by AllieUS

Hello everyone. I have been keeping up on all of the postings here and I appreciate all of the valuable information. I am from the US and not use to tropical storms or hurricaines so please forgive me if this sounds stupid. Can someone tell me what you mean by surges? Is this high winds? I am flying into Punta Cana on Sunday the 19th for 2 weeks. What is your advise as to safety? I know you have many other problems wondering when and if Dean will hit while we are making our vacation plans. (sorry). Can you also tell me after Dean hits (and hopefully it does not) how is the weather? Does it rain and for how long? I have never experienced any of this so I am a newbie. I am praying for all the islands out there. Thank you kindly.

The surge refered to is a water surge.
A heightening of sea level causing flooding.
Punta Cana does not appear to be on Dean's track and will have passed that area by the time you go there, so you should expect the typical sunny Caribbean weather.

[Ken]

Allie, you should be alright. The track of the storm as presently forecast keeps it well off shore when passing PC. People living closer to SD and west of SD have more reason to be concerned.

More important for you, the storm would be well past PC by the time you get here.

The storm, as it passes over the ocean, moves a lot of water. This means that the waves when they hit the beach are higher than normal. High than normal water caused by the passing storm is what is meant by a storm surge. The higher the water, the more of the beach the water covers, and in really low areas the water can travel a long ways. It is like having a tide that is much higher than normal.

How any particular area is affected depends on where it is located in relation to the storm. The closer you are, the more wind and rain you will get. Even people living far enough away so that they don't see much increase in wind are likely to get rain when the storm passes.

There is a good chance the weather will be great when you arrive. My experience is that after a hurricane passes the next few days are very calm and clear, as though the hurricane when it passed suck all the energy out of the atmosphere for that location.

Enjoy your vacation.



QUOTE=AllieUS;548922]Hello everyone. I have been keeping up on all of the postings here and I appreciate all of the valuable information. I am from the US and not use to tropical storms or hurricaines so please forgive me if this sounds stupid. Can someone tell me what you mean by surges? Is this high winds? I am flying into Punta Cana on Sunday the 19th for 2 weeks. What is your advise as to safety? I know you have many other problems wondering when and if Dean will hit while we are making our vacation plans. (sorry). Can you also tell me after Dean hits (and hopefully it does not) how is the weather? Does it rain and for how long? I have never experienced any of this so I am a newbie. I am praying for all the islands out there. Thank you kindly.[/quote]

[SamanaJon]

I always understood "Storm Surge" to be the calculated or seen where the eye-wall crosss land or makes landfall. That should not happen with Dean, according to projections. High tides, high wind gust and large waves...yes indeed. Particulary in the very southwest region of the DR. That would be from Barahona southward and westward. Pt. Cana should have sunny skies by this Monday, following the close brush with Dean.

[Rocky]

Originally Posted by SamanaJon

I always understood "Storm Surge" to be the calculated or seen where the eye-wall crosss land or makes landfall. That should not happen with Dean, according to projections. High tides, high wind gust and large waves...yes indeed. Particulary in the very southwest region of the DR. That would be from Barahona southward and westward. Pt. Cana should have sunny skies by this Monday, following the close brush with Dean.

I don't quite understand all of your post, but certainly Barahona is the only area in the DR that is in Dean's predicted path.

[Rocky]

Storm surge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A storm surge is an offshore rise of water associated with a low pressure weather system, typically a tropical cyclone. Storm surge is caused primarily by high winds pushing on the ocean's surface. The wind causes the water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea level. Low pressure at the center of a weather system also has a small secondary effect, as can the bathymetry of the body of water. It is this combined effect of low pressure and persistent wind over a shallow water body which is the most common cause of storm surge flooding problems. The term "storm surge" in casual (non-scientific) use is storm tide; that is, it refers to the rise of water associated with the storm, plus tide, wave run-up, and freshwater flooding. When referencing storm surge height, it is important to clarify the usage, as well as the reference point. NHC tropical storm reports reference storm surge as water height above normal astronomical tide level, and storm tide as water height above NGVD-29 mean sea level.

[Ken]

Good man, Rocky. you beat me to the punch.