Tropical Wave

[Chris]

Hey,
that´s been faster than i expected.
the disturbance over the lesser antilles is named Invest 93,
thunderstorm activities set in even under heaviest windshear.
i still do not belive the model´s tracks bringing it straight up on a NW track right to the east south east of Hispaniola.
weather conditions on it´s north and northwest let me still count it to move much more west than northwards, but it´s a fu.. big piece of rain down there.
by tomorrow afternoon it may show some face,
it will not develop much over night,
before the weekend conditions do not favor such.
Mike

(Mike wrote this, not me. I just messed it up trying to merge it with another thread - Chris

[Chris]

Approaching the DR now, this wave is producing cloudiness and disorganized showers over the Lesser Antilles, with isolated strong thunderstorms. This wave has the characteristics to allow it to strengthen and it may be a stronger tropical system by the time it gets to the DR. So, be aware that heavy rainfall and gusty winds may influence the DR starting this afternoon or later and that the system may strengthen.

[MikeFisher]

he he
Chris,
we know you are not steling others weather opinion,
would bee a downgrade, ;cause your;s are just great.
what's your opinion for the next week,
the quiet time will be over in a few days.
it looks like the computer models read my opinion, too,
today they show Invest93L on a western course into the caribbean sea.
still high windshear, no development expected today or tomorrow.
it will be a hard and tough fight for the system to survive this weekend,
chances are good to get that diasappeared,
so let's see what the shots show on monday morning.

what we should watch in case of possible big boys in the mid range is what left the african west coast this morning, under observations since several days, surrounding conditions will be favorable during next week on a western track.
it is shown in the lower right corner of the shot, not the yellow circle(the circle just marks the rainy one of the lesser antilles named 93L).


Mike

[MikeFisher]

hi Chris,
now i see why you tried to move my post on the other thread.
sorry, i answered there again about this system,
i did not see this new one you opened about that Trop wave.
maybe you should move that over here and close the other thread, so we do not have several threads about the same formations.
today i disagre with you,
we will not feel influence of the sys today and neither tomorrow,
no big development during the weekend.
i also saw the computer models last night predicting all together a track NW towards Hispaniola, i disagreed and today even the models started to swing their predicted track westwards into the caribbean sea.
it develops very slow due to unfavorable surroundings,
during last night it's size shrinked a lot, because it is raining where it is now and for the moment stopped collecting more surrounding water/clouds/rain.
end of the weekend w should see if it can bring some rain to the southcoast during next week.
it's early,
i name the weekend on this side of the island sunny.
happy weekend
Mike

[Chris]

Hey Mike ..

This reminds me of the systems that we had last year that strengthened, stalled out rained and caused great damage. It is also the time of the year for systems that hang around and don´t move on.

This one is showing signs of organization, even now during raining on Puerto Rico and even though it is somewhat smaller on the sats. It is expected to be a Tropical Depression today, a recon flight is coming out to check out the system today and it is going to rain on us sometime.

Let´s watch this one a little more. At this early stage in the game, the models do not have much data to work with and they are frequently scattered all over the paper.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

hi Chris,
now i see why you tried to move my post on the other thread.
sorry, i answered there again about this system,
i did not see this new one you opened about that Trop wave.
maybe you should move that over here and close the other thread, so we do not have several threads about the same formations.

All done ...

[MikeFisher]

that's right.
actually the sys track is shown as NNW,
but it is not really moving like that, it is much more stationery and rained a lot on it's east and south since days, so it is smaller in it's appearance on the sat shots and looks like it moved a lot north because it's missing the east and south of the former formation.
yes, it will be TD soon and may get TS Kyle.
it's raining over puerto rico now,
it is close, our sunny skies on the east will change this afternoon,
actually we have 10-12 knots NE breeze, and sunny skies
that may double.
when the data of the reconnaisance flight is in this afternoon we know it's track,
it may just run straight northwards over puerto rico, so the rain in PC would be over tomorrow afternoon without a big deal.
it's dangers are not winds, it's water.
on our east coast w are not vulnerable for rainloads,
but huge parts of the island are, so let's hope that one runs north over PR.
back in the afternoon
Mike

[MikeFisher]

actual shot from 12:15PM today.
shows the water mass.
WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground


i would say such contains at least it's 35mphr+ winds.
still no recon-flight datas available,
still no visible surface circulation,
it's most water is on it's eastern portion.
we had a few drops with very dark clouds on the east when i drove over to bavaro 2hrs ago, few minutes of rain on the way, now again sunny, over the ocean we have very dark huge clouds hanging around.
wind died down at the moment, this water is closing in.
Mike

[Lambada]

Looks like a wet Sunday night & Monday for parts of the DR - east & north east, north etc. Maybe Haiti will be lucky this time.
http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e2...KYLE-RECON.jpg

[MikeFisher]

i would say for most parts of the entire island.
by the look of the actual sat shots i would assume that san perdo-la romana-higuey may have had rain this early afternoon.
for the east coast it will start today, yeap.
still sunny,
no wind,
no waves,
but the horizon promises me i will have to move inside before dinner today,
i love to work on the 'puter outside after dinner.
Mike